The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .

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2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

What is often not well understood about LTG is that it was a scenario analysis rather than a forecast; the idea was to analyse the impact of various social behaviours and decisions to determine alternative futures, rather than definitively map out what would happen. Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read.

Roughly million urban dwellers are regarded as income poor. These original models, as published in the “famous in some circles” book “Limits to Growth”. View all 7 comments. She admitted that she had not one positive vision for Pakistan. His predictions may well come to be true in the short term more of the same, just worsebut jorgeh makes no effort to predict the future when things begin to unravel – politically, economically, socially, financially.

Some good messages shine through – 202 catastrophe is unlikely byour rich world standard of living will generally not plummet, and technological developments will continue to improve our standard of life. Inonly two countries, France and China, will be generating any electricity from nuclear energy at all—and both will have decided to get out raanders nuclear altogether by China and India alone will account for more than one-third of the total increase.


| A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers

The countries in the ascendant will be Scandinavia, Germany, Benelux, and the Baltic states. My main criticism with the book is its real failure to account for “black swan,” events which are covered only briefly at the end of the book.

The book is alarming, but not enough ramders move media and political cogs to prevent the upcoming in decades collapse. Are you climate ready? I humbly doubt this is going to happen. Jul 26, Tim rated it really liked it.

They are both characterised by multiple interacting feedback loops—cause-and-effect cycles that now and then produce counterintuitive responses. And what does our future look like? This diplomat was raneers honest.

Despite the Fukushima reactor disaster in springthe prevailing mood in many countries in autumn remained broadly supportive of some kind of nuclear renaissance. Head to the checkout Empty my basket and order this item instead. Did we really need the following sentence? Like the debate over security, Randers’ world so praising of China will end up with the worst of both: This book took me a while to read, because it was dense with information. It is unlikely leaders can do anything about it.

Professor Jorgen Randers: 2052: A global forecast for the next forty years

A big prediction that Randers comes to is that while China and others will grow their middle class hugely as we all know, this will be partly balanced by the west levelling off both in population and consumption per person by Publishers Weekly- Randers has made it his life’s work to caution the world about the dangers of unfettered expansion, and to seek out solutions to current and prospective problems.


Today, in the framework of sustainable development, some argue that continued growth in GDP may be compatible with avoiding an environmental disaster. The book ends with the pragmatic advice of expected defeat: This diplomat was surprisingly honest. Oct 13, Ch Nasir rated it really liked it. And in that world, electrical energy will stand out, not just for replacing fuel energy in all sectors of the United States and the world, but also for doing it much more quickly than expected.

While Meadows, lead author of the original work continues to believe in the predictions in the LTG model, that we will face collapse in almost all scenarios by mid 21st century, Randers takes a more sanguine v The author was part of the team behind the ground breaking classic The Limits to Growthwhich I am greatly impressed with.

Like other major industries, the defense sector will because it must mutate and evolve over time, which raises the question of what role the military will play during the next forty years. Also, people will do what makes economic sense in the short term. We will have to learn to love a life with less consumption.

Set evidence-based targets, measure and be transparent Task 9: